TheQfactor
Monday, November 1
 
ELECTION DAY PREDICTIONS
The Rittenhouse Review, November 01, 2004

Coming Soon . . . Morning in America--But For Real This Time


It's time I stepped up to the plate with Election Day predictions, joining so many fellow bloggers and pundits who already have published their expectations.

As you can see, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic as the campaign winds down to the final hours.

The tide is beyond having turned in favor of Kerry-Edwards, it's growing at the time when it counts most. It soon will be morning in America. But for real this time.



First, a few premises underlying the predictions:

I suspect Democrats, minorities, newly registered voters, and young voters have been undercounted in the polls;

turn-out will be far heavier than any time in the last two decades; the president's standing is too low for an incumbent to win, causing the so-called undecided voters to swing to the Democrats;

Osama bin Laden's effect on the election is nil;

domestic issues, including employment, wages, and health care, are more important to voters than pundits think and polls reveal;

and the passion of anti-Bush voters is a truly transformative phenomenon.




Swing States: Supporters listen to rock music as they wait for Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry to arrive for an election eve rally in Cleveland, Monday, Nov. 1, 2004. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)


And the predictions:



Blue: Kerry-Edwards Red: Bush-Cheney (Note: Map not drawn to scale.)


POPULAR VOTE

Kerry-Edwards: 52 percent
Bush-Cheney: 48 percent

ELECTORAL VOTE

Kerry-Edwards: 304 votes
Bush-Cheney: 234 votes


STATE DISTRIBUTION

Kerry-Edwards (22 states and D.C.): California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Bush-Cheney (28 states) Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.


U.S. SENATE

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 49 seats


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